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Evénements > Acceuil

Future of transport and mobility to 2040 and 2060, and beyond

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by Alain Sauvant

General Engineer in the ‘‘Corps des ponts, eaux et forêts’’, economist, Director of AQST (independant Authority for quality of service in transport, attached to the Minister of Transport, Paris, France) The future of passenger and goods transport and mobility in the long term (2040, 2060 and bey ond) in the French context and possibly worldwide should be shaped by some key factors:

First, the growing concern for the environment, especially in the global context of climate change, but also more local issues such as air pollution in cities, with an emerging concern relating to ambient pollution during extraction and transformation
of key mineral resources.
Various technological revolutions will also impact transport significantly such as:
- electrification and miniaturization,
- progressive vehicle automation,
- telecom and artificial intelligence, both directly and also through lifestyle changes.

Geopolitical and societal considerations may also influence the destiny of transport, such as ageing, more or less State power, more or less barriers to trade, possible evolution of energy markets and natural resources markets, or evolution of respective weights of various major economic zones inthe world…

On a longer time scale beyond 2060, issues of city planning and heavy infrastructure planning should be important as well.
Although speed and productivity should remain important issues shaping passenger and goods transport, the growing environment concerns together with new technological possibilities may shape the sector quite differently compared to what it looks like now, possibly a world that may be paradoxically at the same time both more local and more global.